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KGI Increases Moderately in 2006

February 20, 2007: BETHESDA, MD - The Kaulkin Ginsberg Index (KGI), the leading indicator of economic conditions affecting the accounts receivable management (ARM) industry, has increased 4.7% to 1317.4 over the course of 2006.  While the KGI is down 10.5% from its all-time high of 1472.7, the annual increase is attributed to significant movement in each of the index’s seven variables that took place throughout 2006.

Kaulkin Ginsberg Index February 2007

The KGI’s two distinct fluctuations took place first following NCO Group’s spring announcement of its plans to go private and, later, after the completion of the merger and subsequent delisting in November 2006.  The total market capitalization of publicly traded ARM companies is one of the seven macroeconomic variables that contribute to the KGI.   

In addition, the more than fourfold increase in bankruptcy filings in 2006 impacted the KGI significantly throughout 2006.  Fluctuations in the number of bankruptcy filings were caused by the passage of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) in October 2005.  Following a surge in filings prior to BAPCPA’s effective date, first quarter 2006 filings dropped to historic lows but proceeded to rise throughout the year. 

“Notwithstanding the volatility of the Index in 2006, the KGI presently signals favorable economic prospects for ARM companies in the coming year,” said Michael Klozotsky, a Kaulkin Ginsberg Research Associate.

The Index’s changes in 2006 were caused by the following factors:

Variable

December *

Annual Change *

Effect on KGI *

Unemployment Rate

4.5%

12.9%

Up

Federal Funds Rate

5.24%

26.0%

Up

Charge-off Rate

0.42%

-28.8%

Down

Outstanding Consumer Credit

$2.400T

11.1%

Up

Total Market Cap of ARM Stocks

$2.17B

-28.2%

Down

Bankruptcy Filings

171,146

448.6%

Up

Consumer Price Index
201.8
2.5%
Up

* See “How is the KGI Calculated,” http://www.kaulkin.com/research/kgi/calculate.cfm

For more information about the Kaulkin Ginsberg Index, see www.kaulkin.com/research/kgi or call Michael Klozotsky at 301-907-0840 ext. 123.

About Kaulkin Ginsberg Company
Kaulkin Ginsberg is the leading strategic advisor to accounts receivable management and related business services companies, helping owners and executives succeed in their efforts to analyze, grow, or exit their businesses. Services include merger, acquisition, and valuation advice; market research; debt purchase and sales advice; operational consulting; and executive search. Kaulkin Ginsberg's media division publishes the most popular sources of timely industry information such as insideARM.com(TM) and The ARM Insider(TM). Kaulkin Information Systems provides secure, affordable document management and workflow systems. Read more about Kaulkin Ginsberg at www.kaulkin.com.