Economic Improvement?: A Recap of First Six Months in 2017

September 7th, 2017

Kaulkin Ginsberg’s research team completed its examinations of numerous economic indicators throughout the first half of 2017 and posted their detailed analyses on KG Prime. From the various employment-related metrics reviewed, to the indicators revealing how consumers and business owners perceive the economic climate, and the numerous wealth-related metrics evaluated, we can generally conclude that the economy is quite healthy and strong. The relatively healthy economy in the post-Great Recession era should provide increased revenue opportunities for the accounts receivable management (ARM) industry.

Initially, Kaulkin Ginsberg retrieved economic data on various employment metrics. We observed a couple of unemployment rates, a few non-employment indexes, the labor force participation rate, and the employment-population ratio. Objectively speaking, all of these data have improved dramatically since the Great Recession, with a few (i.e., unemployment rates and non-employment indexes) comparing quite favorably to levels preceding the crisis. The official unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, its lowest level since the early 2000s, and the standard non-employment index fell to its lowest level in a decade.

With regard to perception metrics, we examined inflation measurements, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the Institute for Supply Management Chicago Business Barometer, and interest rates. These metrics may not directly reveal the economic climate, but they suggest how various people perceive its strength. Although inflation has grown slightly below the Federal Reserve’s expectations, on average, the other metrics listed previously have all changed positively. Much of these changes were directly attributed to business owners’ and consumers’ economic growth expectations following Donald Trump’s upset presidential victory in November 2016, which may imply that if Congress and President Trump fail to live up to President Trump’s vast promises, then things may come crashing down.

Lastly, wealth metrics have all grown quite impressively over the past decade. All of the observed metrics (e.g., wages, annual income, expenditures, and business sales) continue growing positively. Consumers are not only earning more money, but they’re spending a greater percentage of it as well – which is very beneficial for the ARM industry – and wages continue rising, albeit slowly. Additionally, as consumers utilize online shopping portals, such as Amazon, the economy should continue changing quite drastically – which may also prove favorable to the ARM industry since buyers would virtually be forced to exclusively pay for items with credit (or debit/gift cards) while much of the “customer service” would be handled by call centers and technologically-advanced software developers.

In all, we move further away from the Great Recession and the economy continues to improve. With the ARM industry specifically in mind, we analyzed many different economic indicators and tried to determine how the trends may impact sellers, buyers, and debt collector.

The full, in-depth analysis on all of these various metrics is exclusively available to KG Prime members for free. Sign up today to see the trends, graphs, and takeaways so that you can apply them to your own business forecasts.

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